Friday, April 23, 2010

Random Musings

I'll get to poker in a min. Well, my buddy and I managed to squeak out 1st place in our 1 dime NBA roto league. With the win + sidebets, looks like we won about 30k. I've been running super good in fantasy leagues the past 12 months. A 1st in our 8 team NFL league (won about $3k + even better a T-shirt proclaiming me champ which I'll be wearing often next season), 3rd in the 3dime 12 team NFL league (+$60k or so split up 3ways), a 1st in our 14 team NBA league (+$700) and recently 1st in the 1 dime 10 team NBA roto league (+$10k for my share). If you guys need any coaching on how to manage a fantasy league team, let me know. I did pass on joining a MLB league because it would be too tedious managing the team on a daily basis w/ the sheer # of games played.

Also watched nearly the entire NFL draft tonight. I've never really watched it before...just checked the results when they finished but I was interested this year because the draft is pretty deep this year and I've been following college and NFL closer last couple of years (coincides w/ managing a team in fantasy football as well as betting on games). Not too many surprises except Jax reaching for a DT at #10 and probably the biggest surprise, Tebow going to Denver w/ the 26th pick while Clauson and McCoy were available. Personally I'm not too high on Tebow as an NFL qb although he does possess a boatload of intangibles and is genuinely a good guy. Also I agree with most experts saying Ndamukong Suh will end up being the better player than Sam Bradford over the long haul. I watched the Texas-Neb Big12 title game and I've never seen a lineman dominate a game like he did that was amazing to watch. If you can't tell, I can't wait for the season to start already. This time I will grind some poker during the season (unlike last year where I played almost no poker at all during the season).

Where I run good in fantasy leagues, I run bad in automobiles. Just took my Benz in for a standard oil change and found out the gas tank had a leak and the ac was not blowing out cold air. The car's about 5 years old but runs and looks good still so I never bothered with getting an extended warranty. Total damage $2500...meh. I think it's more expensive to fix the upper end cars as well. Tomorrow I'm taking my Honda Pilot in as well. The back ac is not working as well but I was told it would cost only about $270 or so to fix that, so that isn't bad. We've had this car for 7 years now and I can honestly say it's been a great car over the years. Very few problems and great for all our family needs. With that said I'll be looking to trade in one of my cars for a new one later this year and then the other one next year. My personal choices are Audi for the Benz and Range Rover for the Pilot. My wife differs greatly though..she want's higher end Benz's for both cars. I tried explaining to her that they are charging a premium because of the brand and the other cars are more bang for your buck (well not really sure about Range Rovers tbh) but I guess it's hard to change a woman's mind when she likes certain things.

As for poker, I'm contemplating moving the bulk of my play over to Pokerstars. I just think it makes sense for me. There are more tables to play on and choose from at the stakes I play. Also getting to supernova then supernova elite would pay me a lot more than the standard rake back on FTP. I won't be trying to get sne this year but will probably try it next year barring some weird things happening (eg uigea on June 1st screwing up online poker). As for which site is tougher, I think they are close but I'm beginning to think Stars may be a little softer because some of the mass tabling regs are playing robotic to try to achieve sne whereas you don't see that at FTP. Also Stars being the biggest site seems to attract more fish. I do prefer the FTP software but I don't mind Stars' software. I guess I will need to use Table Ninja as well to be efficient.

At least I am winning again..albeit not much. 1st week of april I won $14k, 2nd week lost $40k (yikes!), and the past week I'm probably up about $8k. I'm still running way below ev and still feel like I'm getting on the wrong side of coolers more than usual. I can say that because I've played several million hands in my lifetime and have a feel for how often I should be getting coolered and vice versa. Oh well, all I can do is try to play my A game consistently and let the chips fall where they may.

Couple of interesting hands from recent sessions (also illustrates some about how I've been running)...

FTP, $3/$6 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players - Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $618
UTG: $4,216.55
CO: $1,498.30
BTN: $621.90
SB: $600

Pre-Flop: K J dealt to Hero (BB)

UTG raises to $18, CO calls $18, BTN folds, Hero calls $15, SB folds

Flop: ($60) A Q 7 (3 Players)

Hero checks, UTG bets $45, CO folds, Hero calls $45

Turn: ($150) K (2 Players)

Hero checks, UTG checks

River: ($150) Q (2 Players)

Hero bets $125, UTG raises to $4,153.55 and is All-In, Hero calls $430 and is All-In

Results: $1,260 Pot

Hero mucked K J and LOST (-$615 NET)

UTG showed A A and WON $4,855.55 (+$4,237.55 NET)

I elected to slow play my hand this time. I hated facing the river shove as this villain is a good reg and not getting out of line too often. Tbh his line confused me because I would've expected sets and aces up to cbet the turn ip but didn't rule it out when he shoved the riv. I tanked forever and considered folding but let's face it, it would've been extremely difficult considering we both underrepped our hands by checking the turn. I guess I could've c/called the river. Chalk it up to being on the wrong end of a cooler (or maybe I suck and should've folded to the river shove).

I do like the way I played this hand though... (note: converter messed up..villain was utg and not bb)

FTP, $3/$6 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players - Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $743.25
SB: $600
BB: $624
UTG: $666
MP: $600
CO: $600

Pre-Flop: 8 7 dealt to Hero (BTN)

BB raises to $21, 2 folds, Hero calls $21, 2 folds

Flop: ($51) 6 2 4 (2 Players)

BB bets $33, Hero calls $33

Turn: ($117) 5 (2 Players)

BB checks, Hero bets $80, BB calls $80

River: ($277) A (2 Players)

BB checks, Hero checks

Results: $277 Pot ($3 Rake)

Hero showed 8 7 and LOST (-$134 NET)

BB showed J Q and WON $274 (+$140 NET)

Again vs a solid reg. Flop and turn are standard although I guess I can raise the flop sometimes. The river is where I feel like I played it well. When he calls the turn, his range are 2prs, sets, and bigger flush draws. If I bet the river I don't think he calls me w/ his 2prs and sets because the board is terrible for those hands and bigger flushes will check shove and I'll be hating life when I face that (again). So this time chalk it up to being on the wrong end of a cooler, again, but being smart enough to lose the minimum.


  1. fwiw, my results long term are about 1ptbb better on ftp than stars. i def think ftp is softer.

  2. Move to Stars already! I hate seeing you at my tables!!! :-)

    It should make for some interesting blog posts.

  3. I think stars and ftp are actually close in terms of overall competition but I may just move over to stars because they have a better payback system for heavy volume grinders such as myself. I will still play on both sites because it's beneficial to be able to table select across various sites. Now I just hope stars lets me win once in awhile..running way below ev for the year there (although I am up) and doing nothing in their mtts as well.

  4. yea i downloaded stars software but have not deposited it yet... i agree with your thoughts, mathematically stars should have more fish... but ft software is the best...

    amazing river check on that one hand...

    another reason i dl stars besides running bad on ft was i wanted to satellite into napt 5k... coincidentally, i chatted with vanessa at a poker seminar at yale 2 weeks before her win there...


    Also the wcoop is gonna start on stars soon so want to build a roll for some of the events there.

  6. I wonder how the growth curve would look if you and some of the other pros started today instead of several years ago. Obviously you guys have the skills to be successful in general, but how do you think it would shape your overall playstyle?

  7. hey john, you mentioned the uigea screwing things over june 1st... are you considering withdrawing your online roll before that date just in case the worst happens?

  8. Hard to answer your question Brandon. Personally I think I would still be successful if I started today but idk how different my game would be. I do have some of the skill set that requires success like mental stability, awareness, humbleness, etc and the rest I can learn from all the videos, forums, and info out there (which comprise the technical aspects of the game).

    Duke I did withdraw some money just in case. Tbh no one really knows what effect the uigea will have come June 1st. From what I know it's only supposed to affect deposits and not withdrawals. Obviously that's still gonna hurt the game. Other than that, I'll continue to play online until they tell me I can't or the games are just comprised of tough regs.

  9. Stars software is the worst.

    Enjoy competing w/ nanonoko on 15 tables ;)

  10. And Nano is someone I should be aware of? :)