Friday, December 10, 2010

Interesting Fantasy Football EV Spot

This is for the fantasy football aficionados out there. So I mentioned I'm in a $3k buyin fantasy football league and we have sick side action going in it. My buddy Joe has a team as well and faced this interesting dilemma yesterday. He has a $15k total points bet his team vs. Ben's team w/ this week being the last week points count toward the bet (playoff weeks are not included).

W/ his team trailing Ben's team by 38 pts, Ben offered to let him buy out for $12k w/o this week counting. The scoring system in this league is .5 ppr w/ passing tds 4pts and all other tds 6pts (rest is standard eg 10 yds rush/rec 1pt, 25 yds pass 1pt, to's -2pts, Yahoo league).

So I think this is the way to look at it...Joe can agree and save $3k or he can risk the $3k to try to win $27k (the $12k owed + $15k if his team beats Ben's in the final week). So basically he's getting 9-1 on his money.

I guess it helps to know the teams so here they are (w/ matchups)

Joe's team:...............................Ben's team:

QB Eli Manning @ Minn.....................QB Matt Ryan @ Caro
WR Larry Fitzgerald vs. Denv..............WR Wes Welker @ Chi
WR Reggie Wayne @ Tenn....................WR Hines Ward vs. Cin
WR Nate Burleson vs. GB...................WR Steve Breaston vs. Denv
RB Ronnie Brown @ NYJ.....................RB Fred Jackson vs. Clev
RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis @ Chi............RB Brian Westbrook vs. Sea
TE Tony Gonzalez @ Caro...................TE Jason Witten vs. Phi
W/R Mike Goodson vs. Atl..................W/R Randy Moss vs. Indy
K Billy Cundiff @ Hous....................K David Akers @ Dal
DEF San Diego vs. KC......................DEF NYG @ Minn

I'm curious to see if anybody think it's good to buy out for $12k and save the $3k or risk the $3k and try to win $27k. He asked me about it and I thought it was very close actually. Being the gamblers we are, I said I leaned toward letting it ride (plus having the sweats are fun).

His team has tough matchups and saving the $3k if his team loses won't affect him too much emotionally. If somehow he accepted and his team ended up outscoring Ben's team for the season costing him $27k he'll be on life tilt.

All that aside, which side do you like here? Take the $3k (and take the $12k loss) or risk it to win $27k?

Few more points...
-Joe's team has never outscored Ben's team by 38pts+ in a single week after 13 weeks
-Since they each had a player go last night they may renegotiate...Wayne had 12 pts, Moss Joe is trailing by 26 pts now. Keep in mind Moss was not projected to do much and Wayne had a very subpar performance, slightly below what he was projected.
-This is a 14 team league so there is nobody really left on waivers that is considered an upgrade over any of the starters
-Joe can substitute Ryan Mathews, Laurent Robinson, or Michael Jenkins for a starter but I don't think any of these guys are upgrades

Oh, as for me my team is in 1st place and a good favorite to win total points for the league and sweep all total points bets...that's just how I roll :)


  1. Interesting. My first question was going to be why they had a total points bet when both of these teams look poor, lol.

    I think I'd take the buyout. Brown, Green-Elis, and Goodson all have tough RB matchups, and his WR's beyond Wayne are nothing special. Save the $3K. I wouldn't have made that offer if I were Ben.

  2. Well, everybody likes their teams after the draft and that's when these bets were made.

    I agree saving the $3k is probably a slightly better ev play but I think he's going to let it ride.

  3. Fortunately for him Ben offered a 10k buyout Sat. night and he took it. Saved 5k because his team got creamed by Ben's today.

  4. Hey John,

    New to your blog since you joined Cash Plays. This has to be a 12 man league, considering some of the players starting - Burleson, Breaston, Goodson(with Stewart back though he did have a good day). Considering the 9-1 calculations I think this was pretty close.

    Since you mentioned that it won't hurt much there is nothing better than a sick Sunday/Monday sweat!

    Keep up the good work - I love the show and your blog is fun to read also.

    Best, Ted

  5. Tx was a 14 team league actually so that explains the crappy players Gl to me as the #1 seed in the playoffs!