Wednesday, September 29, 2010

The week that was

I've been getting back in the grind mode lately. Since there is another day left in the month, I'll wait to post my final results next time for the month. Been doing ok, winning at about 2ptbb/100 at nl400 and nl600 after getting off to a very slow start early on for the month. Here is the past week where I ran good and played well (will post my entire month graph next time, not as pretty). Been playing an hr here, 2hrs there, etc. for a total of about 7hrs which I guess is pretty bad for a week but whatever, can't complain about the results!

Obviously I'm not going to run this well all the time but I'm going to keep on striving to play my A game all the time which is the most important thing.

Also I did another podcast and am beginning to really enjoy talking on the air about poker. I may not be a natural, especially w/ my intonation but I am trying to get better in all aspects...

Our show is now sponsored by Cardrunners as well and the podcasts can be found there as well.

***Fantasy Football update***

Finally in fantasy football, my teams went 2-1 but again lost where it mattered the most, in 3dime. Ended up a little bit up in side action there so it was a profitable weekend. Vick essentially carried the team while Foster and Sjax had mediocre games. Great news that Sjax is not hurt seriously. In that league you really can't afford injuries to your main guys because there is nobody to pick up. The guys that are available are guys like Fred Taylor and Larry Johnson (even guys like Blount, Torain, Kuhn are all gone). When you have thousands of dollars on the line every weekend, you wanna have your best guys out there. My wr trio of Jennings, Colston, and James Jones sucked so I'm happy to have won in side bets even though I lost my hu match to fall to 1-2 in the 14 team league. I've been projected to win every hu match so far and am again for next weekend but projections don't mean squat I guess.

In 1dime my team finally won to go to 1-2 but I still feel like I got a shot. Flacco and AP went off but again my wr trio of Fitz, Welker, and Crabtree left a lot to be desired. I'm not too concerned about the 1st 2 wrs but Crabtree looks terrible stuck in a bad offense. There are really no side bets except for a couple of $500 total pts bets so I'm really sweating the hu wins and losses in that league.

In nickel, I traded away Flacco, Colston, and Knox for Ryan, Jennings, and Demaryius Thomas. The trade doesn't make much sense because we traded the same position players but I'm bullish on Jennings (over Colston) and Thomas has a chance to bust out in a big way. Also I have a lot of good wrs inc. Collie, MWilliams (TB), White, Jennings, Smith (NY), and Floyd so I felt the gamble for Thomas over Knox was worth it. Thanks to the Manning to Collie connection I was high man again, which effectively nets me $550 in side bets (that's 2 weeks in a row). I'm sitting in 1st place in the league w/ a 2-1 record w/ most pts scored. My buddy Joe just traded Ronnie Brown/SSmith (Caro)/Portis for Ray Rice (we're trying to cause a furor over that trade because Joe got way the best of it and there are hundreds, almost thousands of dollars on the line) and traded Brady for MJD/Favre. So his rbs were Chris Johnson, MJD, Rice, and DMC which is about as strong as it gets (1st 3 were considered 3 of the top 4 picks in most leagues) but he just traded MJD/Favre for Brees (which I wouldn't have done) so he's got a powerhouse team that I'll have to try to fend off. We have $100/wk and a $500 total pts bet so hopefully I can manage my team better than his.

Finally if you watched the MNF game you saw that GB tried to stop Chicago from punching it in w/ about a min and a half left in the game when the game was tied and Chicago was within a couple of yards of scoring. I guess some coaches don't understand ev because it was a higher % of winning for Green Bay by letting Chicago score the gimme td then trying to score a td yourself w/ over a minute left than stopping Chicago at the 1 and letting Chicago kick the game winning fg w/ a few seconds left. I read earlier that according to stats (Chic kicker's history of missing xtra pts, GB's probability of scoring a td in a min., etc) , it was determined that GB had an 8% chance of tying the game vs 2% chance of Chicago missing the chip shot fg to win it. It's weird how a lot of decisions in life could and usually should be based on ev, but some people, even people that are expected to know it, don't utilize it. Oh and the $100 I lost betting on GB had nothing to do w/ this rant, honest.


  1. Great to see you running and playing well John. Have a quick question about stats: should there be a huge disparity between Showdown and NonShowdown winnings? Does that mean that one is not bluffing enough when they are closer together? Just would like to know your thoughts on it. Thanks

  2. Hard to answer the 1st question...everybody has different styles of playing and I've seen guys w/ non sd lines sloping higher than sd lines. It's just what your comfortable w/, whether that's 3barreling and bluffing big, or trying to induce bluffs. There are different ways to win which makes poker such an interesting, albeit challenging game.

    As for the 2nd question, I don't think it matters how close or far apart the 2 lines are. Generally your nonsd line slopes up the more you bluff and win pots uncontested. I guess your sd line suffers when you do so because you'll be losing more when caught bluffing more. I wouldn't worry about the gap between the lines but more on whether you're losing too much money in nonsd and/or sd.